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(1/17/2007)
Are Americans Ready to Elect a Black President? Political scientists look at Barack Obama's chances
DURHAM, N.C., Jan. 17 /Standard Newswire/ -- Although Barack Obama is different from previous African-American presidential candidates, it is still unclear if most Americans are ready to elect a black president, say two Duke University political scientists. On Tuesday, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama took his first step into the 2008 presidential race by opening an exploratory committee to raise money and begin building a campaign. Kerry Haynie, an associate professor of political science who teaches a class on African-American politics, said Obama represents the latest iteration of "new black politicians." "Unlike his most recent predecessors, Rev. Al Sharpton and Rev. Jesse Jackson, Obama does not have roots in the Civil Rights movement, he doesn't rely on the black church as his base of support, and he sees himself more as a problem-solver than an agitator or an activist. He is attempting to transcend race and party identification," Haynie said. Haynie and fellow Duke political scientist Paula McClain say Obama has many things working in his favor, but also faces great obstacles. "His most important strengths are his charisma, his innocence and what appears to be an ability to bridge racial and partisan divides," Haynie said. "His lack of national and international political experience and his untested ability to raise large sums of campaign cash are his most important weaknesses." McClain, a professor of political science and public policy, noted that Obama currently has "rock star" status within the Democratic Party. Unlike black presidential candidates Shirley Chisholm in 1972 and Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, Obama "is running as an insider to the Democratic Party. Chisholm's candidacy was clearly not welcomed within the mainstream of the party and Jackson's bid resulted from frustrations with the party's attention to issues of concern to black Americans. Obama's status will attract money, professional campaign staff and media attention, all essential to running a strong and competitive campaign," McClain said. McClain added that Obama, "while liberal in his leanings, is perceived as and presents himself as willing to listen to other points of view. This ability will make him appear less strident than some of his competitors." But McClain and Haynie, who are the co-directors of the Center for the Study of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender in the Social Sciences at Duke, both question the likelihood that Obama will succeed in the race. "Obama has had a meteoric and somewhat unfettered rise," McClain said. "Unlike his potential competitors, he has not experienced the 'rough-and-tumble' politics that is characteristic of presidential politics." "Second, Obama faces the major issue that still clouds much of American politics today -- race and how it plays out in the political arena," said McClain, whose research includes racial minority group politics. "Since the 1940s, when pollsters began asking the question, the majority of Americans have said that they would vote for a black (Negro) for president. Yet, we know this is not the reality and what people say to a pollster about their potential support for a black candidate often is not what is reflected in the voting booth." McClain said she believes Obama "stands a good shot at being the Democratic nominee to president. Of course, Hillary Clinton is the biggest obstacle he faces."
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